15 County Recap! How did Trump do?

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Major Takeaways:

• Trump outperformed targets in suburban counties, particularly in Pennsylvania and Georgia

• Democrats maintained strong margins in highly educated areas like Loudoun County, VA but saw erosion in working-class regions

• Key flips from 2020 occurred in Bucks County (PA), Washoe County (NV), and Sauk County (WI)

County-by-County Breakdown:

Arizona

• Maricopa County (Target: R+3)

  • Achieved R+2.3% (Trump 50.7%, Harris 48.4%)

  • Nearly hit target, flipped from D+2.2 in 2020

  • Strong performance in Phoenix suburbs helped drive the flip

  • Fell slightly short of R+3 target but demonstrated significant suburban shift

Georgia

• Baldwin County (Target: R+2)

  • Achieved R+2.2% (Trump 50.9%, Harris 48.6%)

  • Exceeded target slightly, flipped from D+1.3 in 2020

  • College student turnout lower than 2020

  • Black voter participation remained steady

• Fayette County (Target: R+10)

  • Achieved R+3.2% (Trump 51.2%, Harris 48.0%)

  • Fell short of aggressive R+10 target

  • Continued demographic shifts limited Republican gains

  • Suburban diversification trend evident in results

• Gwinnett County (Target: D+12)

  • Final margin D+16.5% (Harris 57.6%, Trump 41.1%)

  • Democrats overperformed target but dropped from D+18.2 in 2020

  • Strong Asian and Hispanic turnout maintained Democratic advantage

  • Slight Republican improvement from 2020

Michigan

• Kent County (Target: D+2)

  • Final margin D+4.8% (Harris 51.5%, Trump 46.7%)

  • Democrats overperformed target but dropped from D+6.1 in 2020

  • Young professional vote remained strong for Democrats

  • Some Republican gains in outer suburbs

• Saginaw County (Target: R+2)

  • Achieved R+3.3% (Trump 51.0%, Harris 47.7%)

  • Exceeded target, flipped from D+0.3 in 2020

  • Strong performance among working-class voters

  • Union household shifts evident in margin

Nevada

• Washoe County (Target: D+1)

  • Final margin R+2.3% (Trump 50.3%, Harris 48.0%)

  • Major flip from D+4.5 in 2020

  • Hispanic voter shifts helped drive Republican gains

  • California transplant impact less than expected

North Carolina

• Cabarrus County (Target: R+12)

  • Achieved R+8.0% (Trump 53.3%, Harris 45.4%)

  • Fell short of R+12 target but improved from R+9.4 in 2020

  • Suburban growth limited Republican ceiling

  • Manufacturing employment concerns reflected in margin

Pennsylvania

• Bucks County (Target: R+2)

  • Achieved R+1.2% (Trump 49.5%, Harris 48.3%)

  • Nearly hit target, crucial flip from D+4.4 in 2020

  • Suburban women shifts evident in results

  • Union support showed some Republican movement

• Cumberland County (Target: R+14)

  • Achieved R+9.7% (Trump 54.2%, Harris 44.5%)

  • Fell short of target, slight decline from R+10.6 in 2020

  • Military vote remained strongly Republican

  • Warehouse worker turnout impacted final margin

• Northampton County (Target: R+2)

  • Achieved R+2.2% (Trump 50.6%, Harris 48.4%)

  • Exceeded target, flipped from D+0.7 in 2020

  • Working-class shifts continued from 2020 trend

  • Hispanic turnout lower than 2020

Virginia

• Loudoun County (Target: D+15)

  • Final margin D+16.2% (Harris 56.6%, Trump 40.4%)

  • Slightly exceeded target but dropped from D+25 in 2020

  • Education issues drove some Republican gains

  • Tech corridor remained strongly Democratic

• Virginia Beach City (Target: R+2)

  • Final margin D+2.4% (Harris 50.6%, Trump 48.2%)

  • Missed target, remained Democratic but shifted from D+5.4 in 2020

  • Military vote split more than expected

  • Suburban shifts less pronounced than other regions

Wisconsin

• Ozaukee County (Target: R+15)

  • Achieved R+10.5% (Trump 54.6%, Harris 44.1%)

  • Fell short of target, slight decline from R+12 in 2020

  • College-educated Republican softness evident

  • Wealthy suburban trends match national pattern

• Sauk County (Target: R+2)

  • Achieved R+1.6% (Trump 50.0%, Harris 48.4%)

  • Nearly hit target, flipped from D+1.7 in 2020

  • Rural areas showed strong Republican turnout

  • Tourism industry concerns reflected in voting patterns