2024 Presidential Election Night Analysis Guide

(just a quick fun video for y’all trying to vote for Trump. Careful that ghostly donkey with the cackle switching your vote)

Historical Context

• 2016: Trump victory margin 77,744 votes (MI, PA, WI)

• 2020: Biden victory margin 42,918 votes (AZ, GA, WI)

Key Trend Indicators to Watch

• Gen Z male ("Trump bro") turnout

• Post-Dobbs working-class women voting patterns

• Black turnout and Democratic support levels

• Latino voting trends

• College-educated suburban shifts

County-by-County Analysis By State

Arizona

Maricopa County (Phoenix)

• 61% of state's total votes

• 2020: Biden +2.2%

• 2016: Trump +2.9%

• 2012: R+10.7%

• Key Demographics:

  • Working-class Hispanic voters (Phoenix)

  • "McCain Republicans" (Scottsdale/North Phoenix)

  • College students (Tempe)

  • Conservative retirees (West Valley)

  • LDS voters (East Valley)

• Victory Threshold: Trump needs R+3 minimum

• Note: Results typically take weeks to count :(

Georgia

Baldwin County (Milledgeville)

• Historical Significance: Former Civil War capital

• Demographics: 41% Black (down from 43% in 2000)

• Educational Institutions: Georgia College and Georgia Military College

• 2020: Biden +1.3%

• 2016: Clinton +1.7%

• Last Republican win: 2004

• Significance: Black and youth turnout indicator

Fayette County (Atlanta Suburbs)

• Features: Peachtree City's golf cart network

• Demographic Trend: Rapid Black population growth

• Voting History:

  • 2012: Romney +31%

  • 2016: Trump +19%

  • 2020: Trump +7%

  • 2022 Senate Runoff: Warnock within 1%

• Key Factor: White college graduate shift from GOP

Michigan

Muskegon County

• Location: Lake Michigan manufacturing hub

• Demographics: 63% white non-college, 12% Black

• Voting History:

  • 2012: Obama +18%

  • 2016: Clinton +1.5%

  • 2020: Biden +0.6%

  • 2022: Whitmer +8%, Abortion Rights +10%

• Key Factor: Working-class white women

Saginaw County

• Economic Base: Auto parts manufacturing

• Historical Significance: Former lumber center

• Voting History:

  • Pre-2016: Democratic since 1984

  • 2016: Trump +1.2%

  • 2020: Biden +0.3%

• Additional Stakes: Toss-up Senate and House races

• Key Figure: State Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet

Nevada

Clark County (Las Vegas)

• Democratic margin declining three straight elections

• Historical Democratic Margins:

  • 2008: D+19.0%

  • 2012: D+14.6%

  • 2016: D+10.7%

  • 2020: D+9.4%

• Victory Threshold: Keep Democratic margin under 5%

Washoe County (Reno)

• Location: Northern Nevada

• Economic Development: $3.6B Tesla battery factory

• Demographics: 32% white college graduates (vs. 21% in Clark)

• Voting History:

  • 2016: Clinton +1.3%

  • 2020: Biden +4.5%

• Note: Recent election certification controversies

North Carolina

Cabarrus County (Charlotte Area)

• Features: Charlotte Motor Speedway

• Demographic Shift:

  • 2010: 72% white

  • 2022: 59% white, 21% Black, 12% Hispanic, 6% Asian

• Voting History:

  • 2016: Trump +20%

  • 2020: Trump +9%

  • 2022: Budd +12%

• Harris Victory Threshold: Keep Trump margin to 5% or less

Nash County (Rocky Mount)

• Economics: Median household income $56,000

• History: NAFTA-impacted manufacturing/tobacco town

• Voting Pattern: All presidential races since 2004 within 1,000 votes

• Recent Results:

  • 2020: Biden +0.2%

  • 2022: Budd +7%

• Additional Stakes: Rep. Don Davis (NC-01) toss-up race

Wake County

• Demographics: Median household income $97,000

• Victory Threshold: Keep margin within 20 points

• Key Metrics:

  • Election day vs. early vote margins

  • High-income precinct changes

Pennsylvania

Bucks County (Philadelphia Suburbs)

• Demographics: 50% non-college white electorate

• Recent Trump visit: McDonald's in Feasterville-Trevose

• Voting History:

  • 2016: Clinton +0.8%

  • 2020: Biden +4.4%

• Key Factor: Union influence (Teamsters, IAFF)

• Note: Recent GOP voter registration advantage

Cumberland County (Harrisburg Area)

• Trends: Growing tech/logistics hub

• Voting History:

  • 2016: Trump +18%

  • 2020: Trump +11%

  • 2022: Shapiro +8%

• Notable: 23% Haley primary vote

• Harris Strategy: Need single-digit margin

Northampton County (Lehigh Valley)

• Perfect Presidential Bellwether: Since 1972

• Demographics: 30% Hispanic in Bethlehem

• History: Bethlehem Steel closure (2003)

• Voting Pattern:

  • 2016: Trump +4%

  • 2020: Biden +1.2%

• Additional Stakes: Rep. Susan Wild toss-up race

Erie County

• Noted as Pennsylvania's biggest bellwether

• Victory Threshold: R+2 minimum

Wisconsin

Brown County

• Key Metrics: Strong manufacturing presence, union households

• Victory Threshold: R+8 minimum

Sauk County

• History: Ringling Brothers circus birthplace

• Demographics: 70% non-college white voters

• Voting History:

  • 2016: Trump +0.4%

  • 2020: Biden +1.7%

• Key Factor: Democratic field organizing effectiveness

Ozaukee County (Milwaukee Suburbs)

• Region: Part of "WOW" counties

• Demographics: Highest college-educated white population outside Dane County

• Voting History:

  • 2012: Romney +30%

  • 2016: Trump +19%

  • 2020: Trump +12%

• Strategic Importance: Must offset rural trends

Election Night Timeline

First Wave (7:00-7:30 PM ET)

1. Virginia Beach City

   • Need R+2 or better

   • Historical Context:

     • 2000: R+14.3%

     • 2016: R+3.5%

     • 2020: D+5.4%

2. Loudoun County

   • Cannot lose by more than 15 points

   • Rising Asian-American population

   • High-income economic voters

Second Wave (7:30-8:00 PM ET)

• Focus on NC counties (Wake, Robeson)

• Watch PA early returns

Later Returns (After 8:00 PM ET)

• Monitor Midwest battlegrounds

• Arizona/Nevada results likely delayed

Victory Requirements By State

Pennsylvania Path

• Northampton: R+2 minimum

• Luzerne: R+15 minimum

• Montgomery: Keep loss <20 points

Michigan Requirements

• Kent: Within 5 points

• Macomb: R+8 minimum

• Wayne: Turnout under 62%

Wisconsin Necessities

• Waukesha: R+25 minimum

• Kenosha: Must win

• Brown: R+8 minimum

Victory Scenarios

Scenario 1: Hispanic Shift

• Clark County, NV under D+5

• Maricopa County R+3

• Miami-Dade competitive

Scenario 2: Suburban Recovery

• Virginia Beach City R+2

• Loudoun County loss <15

• Oakland County loss <12

Scenario 3: Rural Surge

• Cambria County R+40

• Robeson County R+20

• Erie County R+2

Methodology Notes

• Data Sources: 2000-2020 election returns, Census data

• Margin of Error: ±3% county level, ±4% precinct level

• Assumes turnout similar to 2020

• Third party vote under 2%