2024 Presidential Election Night Analysis Guide
2024 Presidential Election Night Analysis Guide
(just a quick fun video for y’all trying to vote for Trump. Careful that ghostly donkey with the cackle switching your vote)
Historical Context
2016: Trump victory margin 77,744 votes (MI, PA, WI)
2020: Biden victory margin 42,918 votes (AZ, GA, WI)
Key Trend Indicators to Watch
Gen Z male ("Trump bro") turnout
Post-Dobbs working-class women voting patterns
Black turnout and Democratic support levels
Latino voting trends
College-educated suburban shifts
County-by-County Analysis By State
Arizona
Maricopa County (Phoenix)
61% of state's total votes
2020: Biden +2.2%
2016: Trump +2.9%
2012: R+10.7%
Key Demographics:
Working-class Hispanic voters (Phoenix)
"McCain Republicans" (Scottsdale/North Phoenix)
College students (Tempe)
Conservative retirees (West Valley)
LDS voters (East Valley)
Victory Threshold: Trump needs R+3 minimum
Note: Results typically take weeks to count :(
Georgia
Baldwin County (Milledgeville)
Historical Significance: Former Civil War capital
Demographics: 41% Black (down from 43% in 2000)
Educational Institutions: Georgia College and Georgia Military College
2020: Biden +1.3%
2016: Clinton +1.7%
Last Republican win: 2004
Significance: Black and youth turnout indicator
Fayette County (Atlanta Suburbs)
Features: Peachtree City's golf cart network
Demographic Trend: Rapid Black population growth
Voting History:
2012: Romney +31%
2016: Trump +19%
2020: Trump +7%
2022 Senate Runoff: Warnock within 1%
Key Factor: White college graduate shift from GOP
Michigan
Muskegon County
Location: Lake Michigan manufacturing hub
Demographics: 63% white non-college, 12% Black
Voting History:
2012: Obama +18%
2016: Clinton +1.5%
2020: Biden +0.6%
2022: Whitmer +8%, Abortion Rights +10%
Key Factor: Working-class white women
Saginaw County
Economic Base: Auto parts manufacturing
Historical Significance: Former lumber center
Voting History:
Pre-2016: Democratic since 1984
2016: Trump +1.2%
2020: Biden +0.3%
Additional Stakes: Toss-up Senate and House races
Key Figure: State Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet
Nevada
Clark County (Las Vegas)
Democratic margin declining three straight elections
Historical Democratic Margins:
2008: D+19.0%
2012: D+14.6%
2016: D+10.7%
2020: D+9.4%
Victory Threshold: Keep Democratic margin under 5%
Washoe County (Reno)
Location: Northern Nevada
Economic Development: $3.6B Tesla battery factory
Demographics: 32% white college graduates (vs. 21% in Clark)
Voting History:
2016: Clinton +1.3%
2020: Biden +4.5%
Note: Recent election certification controversies
North Carolina
Cabarrus County (Charlotte Area)
Features: Charlotte Motor Speedway
Demographic Shift:
2010: 72% white
2022: 59% white, 21% Black, 12% Hispanic, 6% Asian
Voting History:
2016: Trump +20%
2020: Trump +9%
2022: Budd +12%
Harris Victory Threshold: Keep Trump margin to 5% or less
Nash County (Rocky Mount)
Economics: Median household income $56,000
History: NAFTA-impacted manufacturing/tobacco town
Voting Pattern: All presidential races since 2004 within 1,000 votes
Recent Results:
2020: Biden +0.2%
2022: Budd +7%
Additional Stakes: Rep. Don Davis (NC-01) toss-up race
Wake County
Demographics: Median household income $97,000
Victory Threshold: Keep margin within 20 points
Key Metrics:
Election day vs. early vote margins
High-income precinct changes
Pennsylvania
Bucks County (Philadelphia Suburbs)
Demographics: 50% non-college white electorate
Recent Trump visit: McDonald's in Feasterville-Trevose
Voting History:
2016: Clinton +0.8%
2020: Biden +4.4%
Key Factor: Union influence (Teamsters, IAFF)
Note: Recent GOP voter registration advantage
Cumberland County (Harrisburg Area)
Trends: Growing tech/logistics hub
Voting History:
2016: Trump +18%
2020: Trump +11%
2022: Shapiro +8%
Notable: 23% Haley primary vote
Harris Strategy: Need single-digit margin
Northampton County (Lehigh Valley)
Perfect Presidential Bellwether: Since 1972
Demographics: 30% Hispanic in Bethlehem
History: Bethlehem Steel closure (2003)
Voting Pattern:
2016: Trump +4%
2020: Biden +1.2%
Additional Stakes: Rep. Susan Wild toss-up race
Erie County
Noted as Pennsylvania's biggest bellwether
Victory Threshold: R+2 minimum
Wisconsin
Brown County
Key Metrics: Strong manufacturing presence, union households
Victory Threshold: R+8 minimum
Sauk County
History: Ringling Brothers circus birthplace
Demographics: 70% non-college white voters
Voting History:
2016: Trump +0.4%
2020: Biden +1.7%
Key Factor: Democratic field organizing effectiveness
Ozaukee County (Milwaukee Suburbs)
Region: Part of "WOW" counties
Demographics: Highest college-educated white population outside Dane County
Voting History:
2012: Romney +30%
2016: Trump +19%
2020: Trump +12%
Strategic Importance: Must offset rural trends
Election Night Timeline
First Wave (7:00-7:30 PM ET)
Virginia Beach City
Need R+2 or better
Historical Context:
2000: R+14.3%
2016: R+3.5%
2020: D+5.4%
Loudoun County
Cannot lose by more than 15 points
Rising Asian-American population
High-income economic voters
Second Wave (7:30-8:00 PM ET)
Focus on NC counties (Wake, Robeson)
Watch PA early returns
Later Returns (After 8:00 PM ET)
Monitor Midwest battlegrounds
Arizona/Nevada results likely delayed
Victory Requirements By State
Pennsylvania Path
Northampton: R+2 minimum
Luzerne: R+15 minimum
Montgomery: Keep loss <20 points
Michigan Requirements
Kent: Within 5 points
Macomb: R+8 minimum
Wayne: Turnout under 62%
Wisconsin Necessities
Waukesha: R+25 minimum
Kenosha: Must win
Brown: R+8 minimum
Victory Scenarios
Scenario 1: Hispanic Shift
Clark County, NV under D+5
Maricopa County R+3
Miami-Dade competitive
Scenario 2: Suburban Recovery
Virginia Beach City R+2
Loudoun County loss <15
Oakland County loss <12
Scenario 3: Rural Surge
Cambria County R+40
Robeson County R+20
Erie County R+2
Methodology Notes
Data Sources: 2000-2020 election returns, Census data
Margin of Error: ±3% county level, ±4% precinct level
Assumes turnout similar to 2020
Third party vote under 2%
Wow. I'm printing out. Thanks!!