There are 34 days until the election! Early votes are pouring in, and we have the first round of data to examine.
Two states stand in stark contrast: Pennsylvania and Florida. Their early and absentee voting numbers, as depicted in recent reports, offer a telling glimpse into how post-COVID voting policies have evolved. What we’re witnessing is not just a divergence in voter turnout, but a reflection of how these states adapted—or rolled back—measures introduced during the pandemic.
Why it matters:
Recall the 2022 Senate race between Fetterman and GOP hopeful Dr. Oz
Fetterman garnered: 51.2% with 2,751,012 while Oz came in at 46.3% with 2,487,260 votes.
Presume for a moment that all early/absentee votes went to their respective party candidates.
Fetterman (Democrat):
Election Day votes: 1,894,348
Early/absentee votes: 856,664
Oz (Republican):
Election Day votes: 2,224,571
Early/absentee votes: 262,689
In other words, Republicans have 330K MORE people show up to vote on election day but Democrats had nearly 600K MORE people vote early.
That’s the whole ballgame
Pennsylvania: Maintaining the Pandemic Gains
In 2020, Pennsylvania, like many states, embraced unprecedented flexibility due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Mail-in ballots surged in popularity, driven by health concerns and the need to minimize crowding at polling stations. As shown in the PA Statewide 2024 Early & Absentee Vote Report, this flexibility wasn’t just a one-off. Pennsylvania's approach to early and absentee voting remained robust in 2022, and the data reflects that. And now we have the first batch of 2024 votes:
Democratic Dominance in Early Voting: In 2024, at least 21,656 voters have already cast early ballots. 78.2% of these early votes come from Democrats, up from 72.1% in 2020. This trend demonstrates that Democrats continue to embrace early voting in Pennsylvania, possibly due to continued encouragement from party leaders and the overall ease of access.
Republican Early Voting Declines: On the other hand, Republican participation in early voting has dipped, making up just 20.7% of early voters in 2024, down from 22.5% in 2020. Republicans in Pennsylvania may be prioritizing in-person Election Day voting over early ballots, a trend seen since the aftermath of 2020's election controversies. We were hoping this might be reversed - again, it’s still early.
Drop in Unaffiliated Voters: In 2024, only 1.1% of early voters are unaffiliated, a stark contrast to the 5.4% in 2020. The reasons behind this could range from changes in voter behavior to a stronger polarization of the electorate, with more unaffiliated voters leaning toward one of the major parties.
Florida: A Rollback to Pre-COVID Norms
Florida, a state that also embraced expanded mail-in voting in 2020, has since rolled back many of the provisions that made voting easier during the pandemic. The FL Statewide 2024 Early & Absentee Vote Report highlights these changes and the impact on voter turnout so far.
Reduced Early Voting Participation: In 2024, just 6,043 voters have cast early ballots in Florida. For context, over 243,000 voters cast early ballots in 2020. While it’s early in the voting period, the sharp decline indicates that the rollback of COVID-related voting measures has had a significant impact on participation.
Democrats and Republicans Neck and Neck: Unlike in Pennsylvania, where Democrats have a strong advantage, Florida’s early voting data shows a much closer race. Democrats make up 47.1% of early voters, with Republicans at 44.6%. While Democrats maintain a slight lead, the nearly even split reflects Florida’s status as a battleground state and hints at a highly competitive race in 2024.
Unaffiliated Voter Surge: Interestingly, 8.3% of early voters in Florida are unaffiliated, up from 6.6% in 2020. This suggests that unaffiliated or independent voters are playing a larger role in early voting, potentially due to dissatisfaction with the two-party system or unique local issues driving turnout.
Policy Divergence: Why the Difference?
The contrasting early voting data from Pennsylvania and Florida can largely be attributed to their divergent approaches to election law reforms in the wake of COVID-19.
Pennsylvania:
2020 (COVID-19 Adjustments)
Mail-in Voting Expansion:
Pennsylvania implemented no-excuse mail-in voting for the first time in 2020, thanks to Act 77, passed in 2019. This allowed any voter to request a mail-in ballot without needing to provide a reason.
Due to COVID-19, there was a huge surge in mail-in ballot requests. The state also extended deadlines for receiving and counting ballots that were postmarked by Election Day.
Drop Boxes:
To accommodate the influx of mail-in ballots and to reduce reliance on the postal service, Pennsylvania introduced drop boxes at various locations, where voters could return their completed ballots securely.
Early Voting:
Pennsylvania does not have traditional in-person early voting, but voters could cast their ballots early by requesting and completing mail-in ballots at their county elections office. This process was considered in-person absentee voting.
COVID Safety Measures:
At polling places, measures like social distancing, masks, hand sanitizers, and plexiglass shields were put in place to protect both voters and poll workers.
Election Day Extension:
Pennsylvania extended deadlines to allow for mail-in ballots to be counted if they were postmarked by Election Day and received within three days after the election.
2024 (Post-Pandemic Changes)
Mail-in Voting Rules:
Mail-in voting is still available in Pennsylvania in 2024 under Act 77, but there have been debates and legal challenges about ballot deadlines and signature matching. The focus in 2024 is on tightening security measures.
Unlike 2020, Pennsylvania no longer has the extended deadlines for receiving mail-in ballots. Mail-in ballots must be received by 8 p.m. on Election Day to be counted in 2024.
Drop Boxes:
Pennsylvania still uses drop boxes, but their placement and monitoring have become more regulated. Counties are required to have strict surveillance and often limit the number of drop boxes compared to the larger expansion in 2020.
Voter ID:
While Pennsylvania does not have a strict voter ID law for in-person voting, there have been ongoing discussions about expanding ID requirements for absentee and mail-in ballots. This could include stricter signature matching or additional ID requirements for requesting a mail-in ballot.
Early Voting:
Traditional in-person early voting has still not been adopted in Pennsylvania in 2024. However, voters can continue to request and cast mail-in ballots early at their county elections office, similar to 2020.
Election Integrity Laws:
Pennsylvania passed some election reforms focusing on ballot security, particularly around drop boxes, ballot handling, and third-party assistance. Signature matching is stricter than in 2020, and there is an increased focus on ensuring the accuracy of voter rolls.
Increased Oversight:
The state has also increased election oversight, with more bipartisan observers and regulations on ballot counting to ensure public trust, following debates over 2020 election results.Florida:
Florida:
2020 (COVID-19 Adjustments)
Mail-in Voting Expansion: Due to the pandemic, many states, including Florida, expanded mail-in voting access. Florida already had no-excuse absentee voting, but in 2020, there was a significant increase in the number of absentee ballots requested and returned.
Early Voting: Early voting was widely used in 2020 to reduce Election Day crowding. Florida expanded early voting locations and hours in many counties.
COVID Safety Measures: Precautions like masks, social distancing, and hand sanitizers were present at polling locations. Some polling stations were moved to ensure better ventilation or access to outdoor spaces.
Drop Boxes: Ballot drop boxes were widely available at early voting sites and election offices to reduce reliance on postal services during the pandemic.
2024 (Post-Pandemic)
Mail-in Voting Rules: In 2024, there are stricter regulations around mail-in ballots. New rules require voters to request mail-in ballots every election cycle rather than having the option to receive them automatically. Additionally, voters must provide identification numbers (like a driver’s license number) when requesting a ballot.
Drop Boxes: Florida passed legislation limiting the use of ballot drop boxes. In 2024, these are only available at early voting sites during operating hours, and they must be monitored by election workers.
Voter ID: Voter ID requirements for both in-person voting and absentee voting are more stringent. As of 2024, voters must provide more detailed information when requesting absentee ballots.
Early Voting: Early voting remains a crucial part of the voting process, but the availability of locations and hours may vary by county, with fewer expansions compared to 2020.
Election Security Laws: There are more measures aimed at increasing election integrity, including penalties for third-party voter registration groups that fail to meet specific requirements.The Broader Implications
This tale of two states encapsulates the varying responses to a post-pandemic world, each with its distinct political and electoral calculus. Pennsylvania, with its continued embrace of pandemic-era voting measures, contrasts sharply with Florida's return to pre-pandemic normalcy. These differences may well shape not only the 2024 election but the future of electoral policies across the nation.