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The economic landscape is shifting rapidly, and for most Americans, it's not for the better. Over the past year, a series of alarming trends have emerged from consumer sentiment surveys, like the ones from the University of Michigan, painting a picture of deepening pessimism.
The payroll numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) set a backdrop that is not pretty. The BLS revised their payroll report going back to March 2023, stripping out a whopping 818,000 jobs that we thought existed but didn’t. It’s a dramatic adjustment that hints at the structural weaknesses beneath the surface of the labor market.
Recent data from the JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) also underscores the grim reality: job openings are down, and layoffs are on the rise. It's reminiscent of the 2008 recession, where the labor market buckled under the weight of mounting pressures. The disturbing trends are echoed in a recent analysis that compares the 2021-2024 period with 2006-2010, suggesting a downturn is underway, with potential further losses on the horizon.
Take a look at the first chart below, which highlights the grim reality Americans are grappling with. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey asked, "During the next year or two, do you expect that your income will go up more than prices will go up, about the same, or less?" The results are staggering.
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