CDC Adding Deaths ALL the Way Back to January 2020?!

Reporting lag continues to skew the perception of the pandemic.

The CDC Case Surveillance file FINALLY updated with data from its October 1 release. The previous release was on Sept 18th. It’s always fun to study these various releases and examine the differentials with some scrutiny.

I limited the comparable data to run through August 2021 which puts us at 552,699 deaths (yes, data REALLY lags at the CDC).

Over those 2 weeks the CDC reported 26,565 new deaths. But as we’ve been telling you for a VERY LONG TIME. Here’s my video explanation as to why data lags and what impact that has on the perception of the pandemic from May 2020!

Justin Hart @justin_hart

Let’s talk about lag. The dashboard data we see lacks the important dates we need. With a few exceptions (CO, NYC, ID, LA) we don’t know the true date of the illness onset or the true date of death. What we get is a dump of newly reported deaths. I explain with fruit snacks!

Back to the CDC data release comparisons. Out of the 26,545 deaths newly “added” to the CDC Case Surveillance file through August 2021:

• 10,862 deaths were recorded as deaths before August 2021

• 3,443 deaths were added from 2020!

• 1006 deaths were added as deaths from January to March 2020

So 40% of all of the newly added deaths were from 3+ months ago and 13% of all deaths were from cases in 2020.

The data release has slowed to a crawl recently. I’m hoping they can pick up the pace.

Here’s the exported data comparison for download.