Rational Ground by Justin Hart

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CDC Adding Deaths ALL the Way Back to January 2020?!

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CDC Adding Deaths ALL the Way Back to January 2020?!

Reporting lag continues to skew the perception of the pandemic.

Justin Hart
Oct 7, 2021
19
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CDC Adding Deaths ALL the Way Back to January 2020?!

covidreason.substack.com

The CDC Case Surveillance file FINALLY updated with data from its October 1 release. The previous release was on Sept 18th. It’s always fun to study these various releases and examine the differentials with some scrutiny.

I limited the comparable data to run through August 2021 which puts us at 552,699 deaths (yes, data REALLY lags at the CDC).

Over those 2 weeks the CDC reported 26,565 new deaths. But as we’ve been telling you for a VERY LONG TIME. Here’s my video explanation as to why data lags and what impact that has on the perception of the pandemic from May 2020!

Twitter avatar for @justin_hart
Justin Hart @justin_hart
Let’s talk about lag. The dashboard data we see lacks the important dates we need. With a few exceptions (CO, NYC, ID, LA) we don’t know the true date of the illness onset or the true date of death. What we get is a dump of newly reported deaths. I explain with fruit snacks!
4:02 AM ∙ May 3, 2020
149Likes50Retweets

Back to the CDC data release comparisons. Out of the 26,545 deaths newly “added” to the CDC Case Surveillance file through August 2021:

  • 10,862 deaths were recorded as deaths before August 2021

  • 3,443 deaths were added from 2020!

  • 1006 deaths were added as deaths from January to March 2020

So 40% of all of the newly added deaths were from 3+ months ago and 13% of all deaths were from cases in 2020.

The data release has slowed to a crawl recently. I’m hoping they can pick up the pace.

Here’s the exported data comparison for download.

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CDC Adding Deaths ALL the Way Back to January 2020?!

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