Coconut Kamala Fallen from the Tree and Republicans Should be Worried

I’ll admit it: my predictions for a chaotic, 1968-style Democratic National Convention in Chicago didn’t materialize. Credit where it’s due – the local police kept things under control, and Kamala Harris and the Democrats put on a smooth show. It was a tight operation, with none of the on-the-ground disruption some of us anticipated.

So, what does this mean for the election moving forward? For Republicans, it’s a clear signal that this race is anything but a guaranteed win. Let’s be honest – this is a tight race, and the Democrats used this convention to stabilize their footing and perhaps even edge out in front. But as a sober Republican, I recognize that the outcome is still up in the air, and both sides are in for an intense battle leading up to November.

She is a many of firsts.

She is indeed the coconut just fallen from the tree.

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A Well-Executed Convention

From a political optics standpoint, the Democrats played their hand well. Kamala Harris’ acceptance speech was polished, reintroducing herself as a candidate capable of leading the nation beyond the turmoil and division of the last several years.

Of course it flummoxed those of us who have watched her over the years and realized what kind of political machinations she has used to get to the top and also what policy she has acted. She is not the centrist that she painted herself as last night, not at all.

For 40 minutes, she painted a picture of an inclusive America, balancing her personal story with grand policy promises. We can objectively say, she seized the moment. This speech probably energized the base; it likely reassured moderate voters who may have been on the fence about her leadership capabilities.

But while the Democrats came out of Chicago with momentum, they should temper their enthusiasm. There are still significant challenges ahead for Harris and her campaign – not the least of which are the economic uncertainties that continue to weigh on voters’ minds.

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Harris' Strong Performance vs. Trump's Challenges

Harris’ speech had the intended effect of calming doubts about her readiness to be commander-in-chief. Yet, she also tried to navigate the delicate issue of Gaza by calling for a ceasefire and addressing Palestinian concerns (the Dems are in this curious bind where they have to cater to their anti-war factions while supporting Israel - at least on paper). Her foreign policy stance will be tested in the coming weeks as voters scrutinize her positions further.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump seems thrown off his game. The attempt on his life has certainly added a layer of complexity to his campaign, and it’s clear that his focus has shifted. Still, Republicans can’t afford to underestimate Harris. The enthusiasm from the Democratic base is real, and if we don’t counter it with a strong, focused message, this race could slip away.

The RFK Effect and Economic Concerns

One wildcard in all of this is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. His apparent decision to exit the race could give Trump a slight boost, particularly in swing states where Kennedy had been siphoning off votes. But let’s not overstate this – the margins are still razor-thin, and while Kennedy’s departure helps Trump, it’s not a game-changer.

The real challenge is the economy. Harris might have gotten through the convention unscathed, but the economic anxiety that’s been building can’t be ignored. Inflation, labor market concerns, and uncertainty over Fed policy are all critical issues that will dominate the conversation in the final stretch of the campaign. If Republicans can stay on message and make this election about the economy, we can regain some of the ground lost during the convention.

What Happens Next?

As the confetti settles, the Democrats face the same tough reality as Republicans – this race is far from over. Harris had a strong showing, no doubt, but now comes the hard part. The campaign trail won’t be as scripted as the convention stage, and her ability to withstand the scrutiny and tough questions will be put to the test. Trump’s team is betting that once Harris is out of the convention bubble, the pressure will expose weaknesses in her candidacy.

But to be crystal clear, as we said yesterday, Kamala is underperforming.

At this point in the election in 2020 Biden's margin was fairly significant. I can tell you that Democratic pollsters are definitely nervous.

For us Republicans, it’s a wake-up call. The Democrats are not going to hand us this election, and the race is much closer than many of us would like to admit. It’s time to refocus, stay on message, and remind voters why we believe our vision for America is the right one.

In the end, both sides have their work cut out for them. For now, Harris can enjoy her post-convention bounce, but the real battle begins now. Let’s see how she handles the heat. And for us Republicans, it’s time to buckle up – November is closer than we think.