Election Day 2024: What the Early Vote Numbers Tell Us

As voters head to the polls this morning, let's break down the final early voting data across three battleground states that could determine the outcome of the presidential race.

Arizona: Republican Momentum into Election Day

Final early vote totals solidify a strong Republican position:

• Republicans: 954,306

• Democrats: 758,342

• Others: 625,731

• Total early votes: 2,338,379

Current advantages:

• Raw Republican lead: 195,964 votes

• Republican vote share: +8.4% of current electorate

• Total early vote represents ~68% of expected turnout

Mathematical paths to victory: For Harris to achieve a statistical tie, modeling requires (according to Michael Pruser):

• 9% Republican crossover vote

• 97% Democratic retention

• 55% of the Independent vote (compared to Biden's previous performance)

Key factors:

• Election Day voting historically favors Republicans in Arizona

• Late-arriving mail ballots typically break Republican

• Projected final gap could exceed 300,000 raw votes

• Final electorate projections: Between R+8.5 and R+10

• Critical battlegrounds: Maricopa and Pima margins vs. rural gains

Nevada: Tight Race with Mail Variable

Latest Secretary of State report shows final pre-election numbers:

• Republicans: 410,179

• Democrats: 367,941

• Others: 310,972

• Total early votes: 1,089,092

Current metrics:

• Republican raw vote advantage: 42,238

• Republican vote share: +3.9% of current electorate

• Total represents 78.2% of 2020's total turnout

Three-day trends:

• Democratic mail reduced Republican lead by 7,000 ballots

• Clark County mail patterns suggest low trailing mail totals

• Frequency scores indicate diminishing returns on late mail

Remaining vote composition:

• ~300,000 votes expected between Election Day and trailing mail

• Historical patterns suggest even R/D split in remaining votes

• Republican turnout advantage projected to maintain 8-point lead

• Final raw turnout lead expected within ±5,000 of current margin

Pennsylvania: Dramatic Early Vote Realignment

Current mail-in ballot status:

• Democrats: 1,014,744 (55.4%)

• Republicans: 602,601 (32.9%)

• Democratic "firewall": 412,000 (vs. 1.1M in 2020)

Detailed comparison to 2020: Democratic changes:

• 2020 early votes: 1.7 million

• 2024 early votes: 907,000

• Net decline: 704,000 ballots

• Percentage of 2020 performance: 53.1%

Republican changes:

• 2020 early votes: 621,000

• 2024 early votes: 530,000

• Net decline: 16,000 ballots

• Percentage of 2020 performance: 85.4%

County-level analysis: Bucks County:

• Republican early voting: 42,904 (+16.6% from 36,796 in 2020)

• Democratic early voting: 65,241 (-26.77% from 89,093 in 2020)

Cumberland County:

• Showing similar 30% Democratic decline

• Republican voting up approximately 14%

Northampton County:

• Republican early voting: +18.48% vs 2020

• Following suburban county pattern of Democratic decline

2022 to 2024 momentum:

• Republican gains: +339,000 returned ballots

• Democratic gains: +157,464 returned ballots

• Return rate parity: Democrats 84.5%, Republicans 84.2%

Final week registration changes:

• Republican gains: 9,451 switches

• Democratic gains: 5,602 switches

• Current Democratic registration advantage: 281,000

• Historical context: Down from 1 million pre-2016

Election Day projections:

• Trump needs: 12-point Election Day victory margin

• 2020 reference: 30-point Election Day Republican advantage

• Critical factor: Suburban county performance vs. rural margins

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Today's Key Metrics to Watch

1. Arizona turnout patterns:

   • Maricopa County suburban precincts

   • Rural county acceleration rates

   • Late-mail party composition

2. Nevada variables:

   • Clark County Election Day turnout

   • Rural county Republican margins

   • Last-minute mail ballot returns

3. Pennsylvania indicators:

   • Suburban county Election Day turnout

   • Rural vs. urban turnout ratios

   • Mail ballot rejection rates

   • Early results from Bucks/Cumberland/Northampton

We'll be tracking these metrics throughout the day as results begin to come in. The early vote data suggests significant shifts from previous cycles, particularly in Pennsylvania's suburban corridors and Arizona's overall party composition. The question now becomes whether Election Day turnout patterns reinforce or reshape these pre-election trends.

Check back throughout the day for live updates and analysis as the results begin to paint the final picture of this election cycle.