Happenings in Pennsylvania! Latest Numbers and Trends
As the 2024 election draws near, Pennsylvania is once again proving itself to be a pivotal battleground state, with shifting voter registrations and early voting trends that could decide the outcome.
Flashback: How Oz Lost to Fetterman A quick glance back at 2022 highlights one of the key reasons why the GOP lost that race. While 2.3 million Republicans came out to vote in person compared to 1.7 million Democrats, the Democrats outpaced the GOP in early and mail-in voting:
292,854 Republicans voted early or by mail.
869,569 Democrats did the same.
Despite high in-person turnout for the GOP, their weaker early voting performance cost them dearly. '
This year, Republicans are attempting to close that gap.
2024 Early Vote Trends Early vote updates in Pennsylvania show an interesting shift in behavior compared to previous elections:
Democrats have seen a 26% decrease in early voting from 2020 but a 21% increase from 2022.
Republicans have doubled their early ballot turnout compared to 2022, marking a 30% increase from 2020 and a 100% increase from 2022 at 15 days out.
This dramatic rise in Republican early turnout could be a game-changer in a state where early votes have historically favored Democrats.
Party Registration Shifts Pennsylvania remains one of the few states that tracks party registration shifts, and the trend is clear: Democrats are flipping to the GOP at a higher rate than Republicans are switching parties. In the most recent year, 65,068 Democrats switched to the Republican Party, part of a continued dominant shift seen in the red-to-blue registration charts. This is contributing to the shifting dynamics in the state as Republicans focus on expanding their base.
Polling Numbers: A Tight Race Nate Silver's averages in Pennsylvania have recently shifted back to favor Trump for the first time in months. As of now, Trump holds a 51.7% chance of winning the state, compared to 48.3% for Kamala Harris. Recent polls show the race is tightening, with Trump leading in some polls by narrow margins, and Harris still holding strong in others.
Here’s a breakdown of some of the latest polls:
AtlasIntel: Trump 50%, Harris 47% (R+2.9)
NYT/Siena: Harris 50%, Trump 46% (D+3.5)
Trafalgar Group: Trump 46%, Harris 43% (R+3)
The upcoming weeks will be critical as both campaigns ramp up their efforts to win over voters in this key state.
Conclusion The voter registration shifts, early vote turnout, and tight polling margins all suggest that Pennsylvania will once again be a major battleground in 2024.
Both parties are ramping up their efforts as Election Day approaches, and the final outcome could come down to how well they mobilize their respective bases in the final stretch.