It's a Tie - Which Means that Trump is Winning Bigly

Latest polling published in The Hill shows essentially a tied across all of the major swing states.

Here’s the reality check that should make Democrats sweat: When the polls show a tie, it’s not just a nail-biter—it’s a bad omen. Historically, a national tie between a Democrat and a Republican usually spells doom for the left, especially when it comes to securing the all-important independent vote. And right now, with Kamala Harris locked in a dead heat with Donald Trump across key battleground states, that tie isn’t just close—it’s a flashing red warning sign that Trump is actually ahead, potentially by a significant margin.

Nate Silver’s model shows Trump has a better chance of winning right now. Also note, a 3 pt margin nationally should make Democrats nervous.

This isn’t just political theater; it’s a strategic nightmare for Dems. Democrats have long relied on their voter registration advantage to keep them afloat, but when the numbers are this tight, it signals a vulnerability that could ripple down the ballot, leading to catastrophic losses in Congress and state races. The Harris campaign should be in panic mode, not just because she’s not winning, but because a tie at this stage usually means Trump is positioned to pull ahead in the final stretch.

Gallup should be coming out with their August numbers any day. This type of voter id detail should have Kamala’s advocates jumping mad

Consider the history here: Since FDR, Democrats have enjoyed a 3 to 5 point lead in voter registration, and they’ve needed every bit of it. Republicans have always counted on pulling in independents to close the gap, and when they do, it spells trouble for the left. If a Democrat is tied nationally, it’s practically code for "we’re losing."

Take 2016 as a prime example. Trump and Hillary Clinton both had near-perfect name recognition, making that election more of a bare-knuckle brawl than a typical campaign. But in races where name recognition wasn’t equal—like Mitt Romney’s 2012 run—those few percentage points in recognition could tip entire states. Romney, despite being well-known, was still overshadowed by Obama, and it likely cost him critical votes. Fast forward to today, and Harris is finding herself in a similar, if not worse, predicament.

Don Lemon the other day delivered some bad news to former Biden press sec, Jen Psaki - people don’t know Kamala and they think Trump is better for the economy.

Now, let’s talk about the real elephant in the room: Kamala Harris’s polling performance. If you’re not winning decisively as a Democrat, you’re probably losing. And losing big.

The latest numbers from The Hill (see above) are nothing short of a disaster for Harris. She’s tied with Trump across every battleground state.

The Harris campaign faces multiple hurdles: a lack of enthusiasm, doubts about her leadership, and the ever-present ghost of her predecessor’s unpopularity. Democrats thought replacing Biden would solve their down-ticket problems, but Harris’s struggles are proving that it’s not just about the candidate—it’s about the brand. And right now, the Democratic brand is tarnished.

The bottom line? When the polls are this tight, Trump is winning. Bigly. And if Democrats don’t figure out how to break the tie soon, they’re in for a long, painful November.