Key Swing State Counties to Watch in the 2024 Election (Part 1)

Oct 22, 2024

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As the 2024 Presidential Election approaches, I’m diving deep into the critical swing states and the counties that will determine the outcome. Over the next two articles, I'll be breaking down the most important counties to watch across the swing states and offering insights into how they’ve shifted over the years. This election will hinge on a handful of places that could tip the scales—and I’ll be here providing all of you with detailed analysis.

For paid subscribers, I’m going a step further. You’ll get full access to all the data I’ve collected, including voter trends, margins, and historical insights going back two decades, all in one comprehensive spreadsheet.

Swing States and Key Counties in 2024

We’ve identified the most crucial swing states for the 2024 election, and within them, specific bellwether counties that have proven to be key predictors in recent elections. These counties have a track record of reflecting how their state will go and often, how the national election will turn out. Let’s start by looking at the key counties in each state.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania will once again be a battleground, and these counties are critical for determining which party will win the state.

Northampton County: Northampton is a classic bellwether county. In 2020, it was nearly evenly split with Democrats holding a 0.7% edge. Historically, Northampton has mirrored Pennsylvania's overall election outcomes, so the party that wins here is often a strong indicator of who will take the state.
Erie County: Erie is a blue-collar stronghold that has seen a major shift toward Republicans in recent cycles. Democrats narrowly won here in 2020 with 49.8% of the vote. However, if Republicans can push beyond 52% in Erie, it signals strong working-class support for the GOP across the state.
Luzerne County: Luzerne was a Democratic stronghold that flipped in recent elections. In 2020, Republicans carried the county with a 14.4% margin. For Democrats, any gains in Luzerne will be key to winning back Pennsylvania.

Michigan

Michigan’s shifting demographics make it a hotbed for electoral battles. Here are the counties that will determine who wins the state:

Kent County: Traditionally a Republican area, Kent County has been trending Democratic. In 2020, Democrats narrowly won with 52.0% of the vote. If Republicans reclaim Kent, it could signify broader suburban trends favoring the GOP in Michigan.
Macomb County: Macomb is the archetypal swing county, known for its working-class voters and "Reagan Democrats." In 2020, Republicans held it by 8.1%, but Democrats need to make inroads here if they want to flip Michigan back to blue.
Ottawa County: Ottawa remains a Republican stronghold with 59.8% of the vote going to the GOP in 2020. It’s less about flipping this county blue, but a reduction in the GOP margin would signal demographic changes that could hurt Republicans statewide.

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, the fight will be focused on a few key counties that swing between both parties in presidential elections:

Brown County: Brown County, home to Green Bay, has been a bellwether for the state. In 2020, Republicans held the county with a 7.2% margin. Watch this county closely. If the GOP lead drops below 7%, it could spell trouble for Republicans statewide.
Kenosha County: Kenosha is another important county, representing both suburban and working-class voters. It barely went Republican in 2020, with a 50.7% GOP win. If Democrats can flip Kenosha, it might indicate broader losses for the GOP in Wisconsin.
Sauk County: A small but significant swing county, Democrats won Sauk by just 1.7% in 2020. It’s a key bellwether for the balance of urban and rural voters in the state.

Arizona

Arizona’s rapid population growth and changing demographics make it a battleground state. The key counties to watch here include:

Maricopa County: Home to the majority of Arizona’s voters, Maricopa went for Biden in 2020 with a 2.2% margin. This was a major win for Democrats, but Republicans will need to reclaim Maricopa to have a shot at winning the state in 2024.
Pinal County: A heavily Republican county, Pinal went for Trump by 17.3% in 2020. The GOP needs to maintain or increase this margin to offset potential Democratic gains in Maricopa.
Yavapai County: Traditionally a Republican stronghold, Yavapai saw a 29.3% GOP margin in 2020. While it’s not expected to flip, any significant reduction in the Republican vote here could signal trouble for the GOP across Arizona.

Georgia

Georgia shocked the nation by flipping blue in 2020, and these counties will determine whether it stays that way:

Gwinnett County: Once a Republican county, Gwinnett has trended blue, giving Democrats an 18.2% margin in 2020. If Republicans can win back some suburban voters here, it could indicate that Georgia is still in play for the GOP.
Cobb County: Similar to Gwinnett, Cobb County also trended Democratic in 2020, with Democrats winning by 14.3%. Republicans will need to gain ground here to offset Democratic strength in Atlanta.
Richmond County: A Democratic stronghold, Richmond delivered a 37.2% margin for Biden in 2020. While not likely to flip, turnout in Richmond will be key for Democrats in 2024.

Nevada

Nevada is a must-win state for Democrats, and these counties will play a pivotal role in deciding the state’s outcome:

Washoe County: Washoe County, home to Reno, has long been a swing county in Nevada. Democrats won here by 4.5% in 2020. If Republicans flip Washoe, it would be a strong indicator that the state could turn red.
Clark County: Clark County, which contains Las Vegas, is Nevada’s population center and a Democratic stronghold. Democrats won by a 9.4% margin in 2020. For Republicans to have a shot at Nevada, they’ll need to significantly close the gap here.

North Carolina

North Carolina remains one of the closest battlegrounds in the country, and these counties are critical:

New Hanover County: New Hanover is a swing county that narrowly went Democratic in 2020 by 2.1%. If Republicans can flip this coastal county, it could signal broader GOP strength in North Carolina.
Wake County: One of the fastest-growing counties in the state, Wake gave Democrats a 26.5% margin in 2020. While it’s unlikely to flip, the GOP will want to minimize Democratic gains here to have a shot at the state.
Cumberland County: Another key Democratic county, Cumberland delivered a 16.6% margin in 2020. Like Richmond County in Georgia, turnout here will be crucial for Democrats.

Virginia

Virginia has trended blue in recent cycles, but a few key counties remain competitive:

Loudoun County: Loudoun, a wealthy, highly educated county in Northern Virginia, gave Democrats a 25.0% margin in 2020. However, a Republican resurgence here could signal a shift in suburban voting patterns nationwide.
Chesterfield County: Chesterfield County, outside Richmond, was once a Republican stronghold but has become more competitive. Democrats won here by 6.7% in 2020. A Republican win here would indicate a broader shift back to the GOP in the suburbs.
Virginia Beach: Virginia Beach, with its large military population, has become a competitive county. Democrats won here by just 5.4% in 2020. If Republicans can flip Virginia Beach, it would be a major indicator that they’re gaining ground with military and suburban voters.

What’s Coming in Part 2

This is just the beginning! In Part 2, we’ll explore the strategic groupings of counties based on key demographic trends—whether it’s working-class counties, Hispanic population centers, or suburban shifts. Stay tuned as we dig deeper into how these regions will play a pivotal role in 2024.

For paid subscribers, you’ll get full access to detailed data, including vote percentages, margin shifts, and total votes from 2000 to 2020 across all of these counties. Make sure you don’t miss out!

Stay tuned for Part 2, where we’ll break down the counties by demographic categories to see what trends are emerging and how they’ll impact the 2024 election!

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