New Dataset: Is the Waning Real?
A newly released XLS file quietly released on HealthData.gov shows the vaccines not doing quite what we expect
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Update: apparently they have plugged the file into the COVID tracker now. So we have a few more details but its still very opaque data (see addendum)
One of my BIG complaints against the CDC is that they are legitimately hiding the MOST IMPORTANT data around vaccines. The only clue we got was a leaked deck to the Washington Post back in July showing the 15% of all COVID-19 deaths in MAY 2021 were fully vaccinated:
Silence since then.
We have our go-to slides which show vaccinate rates along with case rates (something anyone with basic Excel knowledge can map out). By the way - in case you missed our previous post - the correlation between cases and vax rates is NON-EXISTENT.
So - to my surprise I found a NEWLY ADDED XLS file on HealthData.gov:
Rates of COVID-19 Cases or Deaths by Age Group and Vaccination Status
Oh goody! But we come to find out that they are STILL HIDING the actual data and instead using incidence rates in 15 jurisdictions. Which jurisdictions? I dunno. How did they come up with the denominator? I dunno.
But we can use the comparative data they have for the INDIVIDUAL VACCINES because they use the same denominator.
Take a look. Here are the “incidence rates per 100K” for each vaccine from April to September 13.
Interpret the Y-Axis as you will. They don’t reveal the “15 jurisdictions” nor the population assumptions they are making. I’m interested in the wave.
When it comes to deaths:
What does this tell us? Well - the summer wave definitely increased infections and deaths for breakthrough cases but it also shows that waning is a very likely factor here.
IT SURE WOULD BE NICE IF SOMEONE WOULD STOP HIDING THE DATA!
The great @AWokeZombie produced these highlights for me from the footnotes:
I hope there's a follow-up post of a plot with relative IR over time by age group; and then the age-adjusted IRR by vaccine?
The data is right there, and quite interesting.
Suggests that VE is holding up at>80% for cases (this might be skewed by more intensive testing of the unvaxxed), but more importantly at >90% against death. Except in the 80+ age group.