Rational Ground by Justin Hart

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Oh look - Omicron is here.
covidreason.substack.com

Oh look - Omicron is here.

Omicron is here and the near vertical take-off likely indicates a wild ride of speculation and intrigue in the weeks to come.

Justin Hart
Dec 22, 2021
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Oh look - Omicron is here.
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Here are the regional and state starts for the past 3 months.

Omicron is here. There are some extraordinary numbers being put up. Check out these select states/regions and their near vertical take-offs. DC, HI, MD, NJ, NY, PR

Other charts below… quick commentary:

  • Nationally you can see the immediate hook upwards across the regions. It’s gonna be quite the ride.

  • Region 1 - The northeast continues the one-two punch… a challenging winter surge and signs of omicron

  • Region 2 - Puerto Rico is heading north but New York and New Jersey are gonna go straight up here shortly.

  • Region 3 - Maryland and D.C. look like a new cryptocurrency in the first hours of trading. Straight to the moon!

  • Region 4 - Coasting for a bit after their massive summer surge these states (including Florida) show Omicron is there. Hang on. The press is gonna go ballistic.

  • Region 5 - Back to back surges. First a winter Delta wave and now Omicron. Illinois about to go sky-high

  • Region 6 - Those gulf fish-hooks are evident and nasty looking. Thankfully, we keep our heads around here and know that 1) there’s nothing you can really do and 2) Omicron looks to be very mild

  • Region 7 - Missouri, who was hit hard with a 2020 flu season, just can’t catch a break. Heading north. Hopefully, hospitalizations will wane like they have elsewhere for Omicron

  • Region 8 (mountain west) - hasn’t had a lot of luck avoiding these surges but Omicron hasn’t quite taken hold there.

  • Region 9 (the west) - My soon-to-be-former state of California thought it had dodged a bullet but you can see things cranking up. Hawaii through the roof!

  • Region 10 - The Northwest (where this all seemingly began) thought it might skate by after a rough fall surge but Omicron looks to have found its way there. Oregon and Washington hooking upwards.

REGION 1

REGION 2

REGION 3

REGION 4

REGION 5

REGION 6

REGION 7

REGION 8

REGION 9

REGION 10

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MountainBlues
Dec 22, 2021

Thanks for the data. Get out your popcorn! Will be interesting to see if it continues to be mild. Saw many more mask wearers when out today here in red county NC.

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Julia
Dec 24, 2021

"Cases per 100K" is a nonsensical metric (even outside of the test giving 97% false positives) as not everybody from those 100K got tested and multiple positive tests from the same person might be counted as multiple cases.

It's like somebody counting Ford Rangers passing by, dividing it by the population size in 100K chunks and claiming they got the number Ford Rangers per 100K population. Bonus, do it every day and measure how it "varies" from weekdays to weekends.

Questions to be answered:

1. Number of tests performed by date

2. Definition of a "case" for every state

3. Other factors

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