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This analysis examines 24 years of presidential election data (2000-2020) through a Republican strategic lens, identifying the critical county-level thresholds needed for a GOP victory in 2024. By analyzing historical trends, demographic shifts, and recent voting patterns, we've identified key markers that would signal a Republican path to 270 electoral votes.
Understanding the Strategic Framework
Why County-Level Analysis Matters
The 2024 election, like 2016 and 2020, will likely be decided by narrow margins in a handful of swing states. County-level analysis provides earlier and more granular indicators than statewide numbers. For Republicans, understanding these patterns is crucial because:
GOP victory requires overperforming in rural/exurban areas to offset Democratic urban advantages
Suburban shifts can be detected at the county level before they appear in state totals
Hispanic and working-class voter trends appear first in specific counties
The Mathematics of Victory
For a Republican victory, the formula typically requires:
Rural margins 8-12 points better than 2020
Suburban losses no worse than 2016 levels
Hispanic support at least 8-10 points higher than 2020
Working-class white turnout matching or exceeding 2016
Key Early Warning Systems
SPREADSHEET BELOW
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