The Economy Really is THAT Bad: Retail Edition

You’ve no doubt seen the Democrats and their apologists in the media exclaim that the issue is really messaging and that the economic challenges people feel are just “perception” or made up.

Here’s the lone non-radical on The View trying to make the case that economic issues matter, but the ladies are STILL convinced it’s just racism and misogyny.

Below is a litany of retail and consumer industry stats and reports which show everything is not hunky dory and there are LEGITIMATE and SERIOUS economic headwinds for businesses and consumers.

• Declining Sales and Revenue:

  • Macy's: Downgraded sales forecast, expecting a year-over-year decline. Comparable store sales also projected to be negative. CEO cites "softness," "carefulness," and "macroeconomic uncertainty."

  • Kroger: Reporting declining sales, with consumers shifting to lower-priced items and essentials. CEO acknowledges consumers are pressured by reduced savings, inflation, and interest rates. Same-store sales shrinking.

  • McDonald's: First negative same-store sales comparison since 2020. US same-store sales down 0.7%. CEO admits prices are perceived as too high by lower-income consumers. Declining traffic in major markets globally.

  • Home Depot: Experiencing declining sales, particularly in discretionary categories like home improvement and renovations.

  • Wayfair: Reporting sales declines comparable to the 2008-2010 recession period. CFO expresses concern about the magnitude of the correction.

  • LVMH (Luxury Goods): First decline in revenues since 2020, pointing to weakness even among high-income consumers. Misleading statements attempting to downplay the downturn. Blames "uncertain economic and geopolitical environment."

  • Walmart: While experiencing increased foot traffic (likely due to promotions), overall sales are declining. Increased traffic to grocery suggests consumers prioritizing essentials and seeking value. Affluent customers shifting to Walmart indicates broader consumer distress.

  • Wendy's: Similar to McDonald's and Walmart, with increased traffic but declining sales.

  • Dollar Stores: Also seeing increased traffic but declining sales, a classic sign of consumers trading down to lower-priced options.

• Consumer Behavior Shifts:

  • Trading Down: Consumers are shifting to lower-priced items, essentials, and value options. This is evident in Kroger's and McDonald's reports, as well as increased traffic to Walmart and dollar stores.

  • Reduced Spending on Discretionary Items: Consumers are cutting back on non-essential purchases, particularly big-ticket items like furniture (Wayfair) and home improvements (Home Depot). Even luxury goods (LVMH) are experiencing a slowdown.

  • Price Sensitivity: While inflation has eased, consumers remain highly price-sensitive, suggesting ongoing financial strain. McDonald's CEO acknowledges the need to improve "value execution."

  • Cutting Back on Travel and Leisure: Airbnb reports slowing demand from US consumers, particularly for short-term vacation rentals. Delta and Southwest Airlines warn of weak demand and discounting during the summer travel season.

• Underlying Factors and Concerns:

  • Weakening Labor Market: Declining hiring rates, rising unemployment, and income fears are key factors driving consumer distress. Consumers are becoming more cautious as job prospects diminish.

  • Depleted Savings: Consumers have exhausted much of their excess savings from the pandemic period, leaving them with less financial cushion to absorb price increases or economic shocks.

  • High Debt Levels: High levels of consumer debt, including credit card debt, exacerbate financial strain and limit spending capacity. Rising credit card delinquencies are a major concern.

  • Global Economic Weakness: The retail and consumer goods sector is not just a US problem. McDonald's and other companies report weakness in major markets around the world. The interconnectedness of global trade and economies amplifies the impact of any downturn.

Key Takeaways:

The retail and consumer goods sector is flashing numerous warning signs. Declining sales, shifting consumer behavior, and rising delinquencies paint a picture of an increasingly strained consumer. While some may attribute this to inflation or interest rates, the underlying issues appear to be more fundamental: a weakening labor market, depleted savings, and high debt levels, all exacerbated by a shaky global economic outlook. These factors are combining to create a dangerous and unsustainable situation for both consumers and businesses.