The True Jobs Numbers

Many of you have no doubt seen the headlines today touting massive job growth - 255K jobs added on a month-over-month basis for the Biden-Harris administration. Here are the true numbers you should be looking at straight from the sources.

You can make your own determination:

BLS EMPLOYMENT FOR SEPT 2024

2 SOURCES

The BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) uses two key surveys to track employment: the Establishment Data (Current Employment Statistics) and the Household Data (Current Population Survey).

The Establishment Data is gathered from employers and focuses on job counts, wages, and hours worked, providing detailed industry-level insights. It tracks non-farm employment and excludes self-employed workers.

In contrast, the Household Data is collected from individuals in households and measures broader labor force characteristics like employment, unemployment, labor force participation, and includes self-employed and agricultural workers. These surveys can sometimes show different trends due to their distinct scopes and methodologies.

• ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm

• HOUSEHOLD SURVEY: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t08.htm

So, where do they get the 254K jobs added? Easy, ADJUSTED DATA showing 223K new private jobs + 32K new government jobs.

But that’s HEAVILY masked by SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS.

The UNADJUSTED NUMBER IS: 918K NEW GOVERNMENT JOBS and -458K PRIVATE JOBS.

And in the household survey is even worse!

Bottom line. Using the seasonally adjusted household survey there were 785K new govt jobs created and 133K private jobs created. In other words, according to the household data, 86% of jobs created in September were government jobs.

And if you use the Household survey unadjusted data: 1.3 MILLION GOVT JOBS vs. -275K private jobs.

Even Fed Chairman Powell was calling into question the veracity of the BLS numbers.

It’s a farce.

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SEASONALLY ADJUSTED GOVT JOBS

Establishment Data: Govt Jobs

• Aug 2024: 23,390

• Sept 2024: 23,421

  • 32K new govt jobs

Compare to 

Household Survey: Govt Jobs

• Aug 2024: 21,431

• Sept 2024: 22,216 

  • 785K new govt jobs

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UNADJUSTED GOVT JOBS

Establishment Data: Government Jobs

• Aug 2024: 22,541

• Sept 2024: 23,459

  • 918K new govt jobs

Compare to 

Household Survey: Government Jobs

• Aug 2024: 20,854

• Sept 2024: 22,176

  • 1.3 million new govt jobs

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SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PRIVATE JOBS

Establishment Data: Private Jobs

• Aug 2024: 135,461

• Sept 2024: 135,684

  • 223K new private jobs

Compare to:

Household Survey: Private Jobs

• Aug 2024: 127,962

• Sept 2024: 128,095

  • 133K new private jobs

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UNADJUSTED PRIVATE JOBS

Establishment Data: Private Jobs

• Aug 2024: 136,176

• Sept 2024: 135,718

  • -458K lost private jobs

Compare to 

Household Survey

• Aug 2024: 128,526

• Sept 2024: 128,251

  • -275K lost private govt jobs

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