Thinking Aloud: Can We Infer Vaccine Efficacy from Race & Ethnicity?

Some ethnicities are HIGHLY vaxxed. Do they show lower severe disease rates?

We’ve noted in these pages how surveys conducted since April give us insight into who is vaccine “hesitant.” On the cross-tabs we noted that Asian Americans have one of the highest vaccination rates as a race/ethnicity. They are not hesitant to get the vaccine.

(Right column denotes respondents who indicated they’ve had MORE than one shot. Left column are respondents who say they will probably never get the vaccination)

So, if we take the Case Surveillance File and look at the top 4 ethnicities for the core stats indicating “severe disease” would we expect to see a difference? Maybe.

But… we don’t.

The chart below goes through Sept 30, 2021 and shows the 60+ age group with the following stats:

• Hospitalization Rate - cases / hosp.

• ICU Rate - ICUs/hosp.

• Deaths w/hosp rate - Deaths / Hosp.

• Deaths w/ ICU rate - Deaths / ICE

• CFR

Asian, Non-Hispanic is highlighted. The difference is not very stark and in some cases they fared worse. I’m not ready to call this evidence of vaccinations NOT WORKING… but I don’t see evidence (again) of vax rates determining population outcomes.

The vaccines — as we always say — can help (perhaps) with severe disease but there’s no evidence they quell the pandemic overall.