Trump is Going to Lose His Mind When He Sees This

The world is heading into a BIG recession.

As we’ve been saying here… the economy is in bad shape. The Democrats were very good at hiding Biden’s mental decline — they were even better at distracting you from the REAL impact of the post-Covid economy.

To review:

• COVID stimulus in 2020 and BIG TIME 2021 under Biden increased your incomes by 20% or more.

• Retailers and services interpreted that as a boom at ramped-up hiring and manufacturing (remember all those boats log-jammed off the coast of L.A.?).

• The natural burst in demand increased inflation.

• Now, the government spigot has turned off and our incomes are just barely above 2019 levels.

• Companies survived for a while riding the wave of higher prices and some higher revenues.

• But now hiring has stopped and people are (rightfully) fearful for their jobs.

Welcome to the COVID backlash!

Then Trump was elected.

Soon, he’ll see the disaster up close.

A globally synchronized recession.

Here's a breakdown of the economic indicators, trends, metrics, and corporate anecdotes emphasizing the precarious economic situation:

I. Global Economic Weakness & Uncertainty:

• China Stimulus Failing: China's 10 trillion yuan stimulus package is proving ineffective, with industrial profits plunging, exports declining (despite heavy discounting), and weak demand persisting. The bond market isn't buying the stimulus story, with yields remaining near record lows. Copper prices, a key indicator of Chinese demand, remain stuck near recent lows.

• Germany's Economic and Political Collapse: Germany's coalition government collapsed amid worsening economic conditions, with the Prime Minister and Finance Minister disagreeing on how to address the downturn. The ZEW survey shows near-record low assessments of the current situation, with zero respondents rating it as "good." Volkswagen is closing factories, and BMW's profit margins are at their lowest in over four years. The 10-year swap spread in Germany turned negative for the first time ever, a highly concerning signal.

• Dollar Soaring: The US dollar is surging, likely due to a rising risk premium as global economic prospects worsen. This contrasts with the typical pattern of the dollar weakening during periods of global growth. The euro and yen, in particular, are weakening against the dollar despite policy differentials. Japanese firms are unwinding carry trades and parking proceeds in US Treasuries, further supporting the dollar.

• Global Bond Yields Crashing: Bond yields are crashing to record lows in China, Germany, and other markets, reflecting low growth and inflation expectations and high demand for safe-haven assets. Central bank attempts to control bond rallies (e.g., China's authoritarian tactics) are proving ineffective.

II. Corporate Distress & Anecdotes:

• Baowu Steel (China): Chairman warns of a "harsh winter" for the steel industry, worse than 2008 or 2015, advising staff to preserve cash and focus on survival.

• ArcelorMittal: Reports a drop in profits and warns of an "unsustainable" steel market due to cheap Chinese imports and weak domestic demand. Cut its forecast for consumption outside China.

• Volkswagen: Planning to close factories in Germany for the first time in its history, citing weak demand.

• BMW: Profit margins have fallen to their lowest level in over four years.

• McDonald's: First negative same-store sales comparison since 2020. CEO admits prices are perceived as too high and cites declining traffic in major markets.

• Aspen Technology: CEO warns the economy is on the "edge of a significant slowdown," with businesses becoming more cautious.

• Mizuho: Co-head of global markets confirms they are still unwinding carry trades due to US recession fears.

III. Key Metrics & Indicators:

• Negative Swap Spreads: Record negative swap spreads in the US and the first-ever negative swap spread in Germany point to serious concerns about future interest rates and economic prospects.

• Bull Steepening Yield Curves: Aggressive bull steepening of yield curves in the US and Germany signals worsening economic conditions.

• Plunging Commodity Prices: Steel and iron ore prices have crashed, reflecting weak demand and oversupply. Oil and gasoline prices are also falling, despite geopolitical risks and supply disruptions, pointing to weak demand. Diesel fuel use is contracting.

• Copper to Gold Ratio: Remains near multi-year lows, indicating deflationary pressures.

• Rising Repo Fails: A surge in repo fails points to collateral difficulties and rising risk aversion among money dealers.

• Weak Consumer Credit Growth: Consumer credit card usage remains exceptionally weak, indicating consumer caution and concerns about the labor market.

• Rising Continued Jobless Claims: Continued jobless claims are rising, suggesting persistent unemployment and a weakening labor market, potentially understated due to exhausted eligibility.

• Falling Industrial Profits (China): One of the largest drops on record, reflecting weak demand and the need for drastic price cuts to move inventory.

• Negative Foreign Direct Investment (China): Record decline in the second quarter, signaling capital flight and pessimism about the Chinese economy. FDI flows have been basically flat over the past year.

• Contracting Bank Lending (China): Chinese banks are cutting back on lending to the real economy, the first contraction in 19 years.

• Falling Home Prices (China): Continuing to decline, exacerbating debt problems for local governments and further depressing consumer sentiment.

• Weak Japanese Yen: The yen is weakening against the dollar despite the Bank of Japan's rate hikes, reflecting a rising risk premium and Japan's trade deficit. Japanese investors continue to unwind carry trades and hold US dollar assets.

• Weak Indian Rupee: The Indian rupee has hit another record low, despite interventions by the Reserve Bank of India, pointing to tightening dollar liquidity conditions.

These indicators and anecdotes, taken together, suggest a globally synchronized downturn is well underway. Market participants are repricing risk, and the optimistic narratives of a soft landing or a quick recovery are fading fast. The combination of weakening demand, industrial oversupply, financial fragility, and rising unemployment creates a highly precarious economic environment.

Trump is not going to be happy.