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Was Pfizer Vaccine Efficacy 95% or just 19%? The Evidence is in!
From our good colleague Ben (@USMortality on Twitter) we now have some very strong evidence and actual calculations on the likely surprisingly low efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine based on a patchwork of released documents under FOIA.
Recall that Pfizer purported that the efficacy of their vaccine was 95%! Ben walks us through that veritable statistical lie and how they got away with it.
Read the entire thread here.
Finally we have evidence, how Pfizer came to calculate a 95% vaccine efficacy! Real efficacy is likely only 19%, with a very bad side effect profile of up to 0.8% severe side effects, as reported by German Hospital Study Charité!
As we know from the published Pfizer studies, the vaccine arm (those who received the actual vaccine vs. the placebo) suffered from +12.1% and +36.1% more systemic Adverse Events (side-effects) than the placebo group. These side effects, are indistinguishable from COVID19 in most cases!
The following document, just released in the latest Pfizer batch shows, that Pfizer did NOT test patients for COVID-19 *up to 7 days after vaccination*, unless the investigator suspected COVID-19, and not vaccine side effects. So it is likely that they would almost never test, but classify them as vax reactions.
Pfizer reported these side effect as "unconfirmed COVID-19" in the just released documents. Here we can see, that suspected COVID-19 was reported in 1595 vax recipients, and 1816 placebo recipients. Based on these numbers VE is about 12%, but ...
… in reality one must include the confirmed COVID-19 cases as well, which would yield: VE = ((1816+162)-(1594+8))/(1816+162) = 19.0% So overall, we have strong reasons to believe that the vaccine might be just 19% effective in preventing COVID-19, but a recent study from Germany's top hospital Charité Berlin, revealed that about 0.8% of vaccinated suffer "severe long-term side effects".
“8 in 1,000 vaccinated are fighting against severe side effects”. The study had 40,000 participants and concluded that the rate of severe side effects is 40x higher than reported by the German government’s vaccine surveillance agency (PEI) (tweet)
So it becomes quite clear that the cost/benefit overall is very likely NOT there, given the fairly large chance of severe side effects, compared to other vaccines!
Summarized: Pfizer encouraged investigators to generally not test for COVID-19 up to 7 days after each vaccination. It would have just taken 154 patients to bring VE to 0%. That represents just 3.1% ( `(162-8)/(2421+2627)` ) of vaccinated patients that experienced any vaccine side effect!