More Falsehoods from the CDC

Also, a note about strategy and tactics for Team Reality

Our intrepid Rational Ground data hero, Josh Stevenson (on Twitter as @ifihadastick), has composed a detailed critique of the CDC’s slides presented yesterday at the ACIP panel. (see excerpt below)

A note of clarification first and a comment on strategy. The vote yesterday was related to a program which gives funding for parents who cannot afford vaccines for their children. The vaccine recommended schedules were already with the CDC back in 2021 but the vote yesterday locked in more permanent fixtures for this program.

But let’s be clear - the CDC panel voted 15 to 0 in favor of MORE COVID-19 vaccines for kids which will 100% lead to state mandates.

Today’s vote is for the regular schedule of vaccine recommendations.

Folks, don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

I’m getting a number of “well, technically they were voting on…” Fine. But if the bulldozer starts a bit prematurely knocking down the building you want demolished… don’t stop it. You don’t get to choose your moments of momentum in this fight.

Case in point - the "revelation" last week from Pfizer's executive testifying at the EU that they did not test their vaccine for stopping transmission. Team Reality knew this fact from day one (the trial's clinical endpoint of "severe disease" was always vague and never clinical).

However, we didn’t stop to parse it. We amplified the "bombshell" news - because everyone saw it as something new. If we stop and explain the technicalities on that exchange it would only kill the buzz that swept across the world.

Most people reading this newsletter have forgotten more about Covid than the general public will ever know. Many people are just starting their journey to Team Reality. If you see energy around a topic - don’t stop to explain every jot and tittle - go with the flow!

Ok… now to Josh’s excellent piece!

CDC ACIP Cites False & Inaccurate Data to Support Kid's Vax

A Slide By Slide Rebuttal to the CDC ACIP Meeting

Slide 2

(chart pulled from CDC Covid-Net)

First, the CDC starts off by showing the population adjusted hospitalization rates for ages 6m - 4 yrs, 5-11yrs, and 12-17yrs. It shows recent rates of ~5/100k for 6m-4 yrs, and about 1/100k for ages 5 and up. Take note of the Omicron wave in the winter when rates peaked at ~16/100k for 6m - 4 yrs, ~2.8 /100k for 5-11yr, and 6.4/100k for 12-17yrs.

What do we compare this chart to? Are these hospitalization rates unprecedented?

Take a look at the same hospitalization rates for the last significant Flu Season (2019-2020) for comparison. A typical flu season sees ~9 hosps/100k for age 0-4, 2.6/ 100k for 5-11, and ~2/100k for 12-17yr olds.

Keep in mind the Omicron wave of winter 21/22 was during a period where a significant portion of older children had already received the vax. And now we know why- the waning of protection against infection. Keep in mind with all of these rates that we know that even before Omicron, a almost half of these pediatric “hospitalizations” aren’t clinically relevant at all, they are merely incidental positive tests from hospitalized children with other reason for admission. This should be taken into account when looking at these rates, which could be divided by half to get a more accurate rate.

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Slide 4- Booster Recommendations

Here they cite their previous recommendations for boosters based on their previous ACIP, and admit that waning vaccine effectiveness was seen immediately after the first kids got vaccinated. What do they think will happen this time?

Read the rest of Josh’s piece here.

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