Pennsylvania is LITERALLY the Keystone State for this Election
Pennsylvania's nickname as the "Keystone State" goes beyond just a motto—it embodies the crucial role a keystone plays in architecture, holding together the entire structure. In this election, Pennsylvania finds itself once again in that pivotal position, bridging the nation's political landscape as the state that could hold it all together—or let it crumble.
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The Hart family on the 4th of July (a few other older kids not pictured!)
This is why it’s so surprising that Kamala Harris didn’t choose Josh Shapiro, the popular governor of Pennsylvania, as her running mate. Most political analysts agree that for Harris to have a real shot at the presidency, she must win Pennsylvania, a state that has often decided the outcome of national elections. With its deep political divides and pivotal electoral votes, Pennsylvania is seen as the keystone in her path to victory—a role that Shapiro, as a well-liked figure in the state, could have helped secure.
Pennsylvania may already be slipping away from Harris. Despite the strength of down-ticket Democrats like Senator Bob Casey, who is leading the Senate race against Republican veteran Dave McCormick, statewide polls show Donald Trump ahead. With Pennsylvania trending red at the top of the ticket, Harris faces an uphill battle in a state she can't afford to lose.
One of the most remarkable data points in Pennsylvania is the evolution of Republican voter registration. Pennsylvania is one of the few states that tracks and publishes detailed registration data, including shifts between parties—D to R, R to D, and D to Independent—down to the county level. Over the past decade, Democratic registrations have fallen from 4 million to just over 3.8 million, while Republican registrations have surged from under 3 million to nearly 3.5 million. Nowhere is Trump's unique appeal to the blue-collar class—historically loyal to the Democrats—more apparent than in Pennsylvania, where his influence has fueled this shift in party allegiance.
Part-switching charts:
From the polling firm SoCal Strategies, Donald Trump performs well in several key demographics (his core group really):
Gender: Trump has strong support among male voters, securing 50% of the vote compared to 44% for Harris.
Age: His support is highest among voters aged 65 and older, where he leads with 51% of the vote.
Party ID: Unsurprisingly, Trump dominates among Republicans, with 82% of their support, and also captures a significant portion of Independents, polling at 37%.
Race: Trump's appeal is strongest among white voters, with 50% supporting him. Among Hispanic and "other" racial categories, he garners 56% and 57% of the vote, respectively.
Education: He leads with white voters who lack a college degree, holding 55% of that demographic.
These data points highlight Trump's enduring strength among older, white, non-college-educated voters, and his appeal to a broader segment of the electorate, including non-white voters without college degrees.
Right now, Trump’s chances to win the election rest on Pennsylvania. We’ll see as the weeks continue how her performs.
How can you fail to credit Scott Presler for the push to register voters on PA? He even moved there to swing the state Republican.
Not American but I watch and immerse myself in US politics like I am. I love seeing data confirming the swing from that cackling moron and her communist running mate to DJT and the MAGA movement. If America loses this election and re-elects the despicably evil, corrupt and criminal Democrats for another 4 years, America won't survive as 'she is' and the world will see tyranny spread across it like a veracious, toxic cancer.