"We just didn't know." - WRONG

Emily Oster's defense that "we just didn't know" is wrong. Here's the proof.

We’ve noted a host of responses written to Emily Oster’s piece in the Atlantic calling for amnesty for those who perpetrated great harm on our country with Covid policies.

Our colleague, the inestimable @Robber_Baron_, brings to bear their keen cataloguing skills to counter Emily Oster’s argument that “we just didn’t know" or that those of us who got it right were just “lucky.”

As one meme notes: “They’re not asking for your forgiveness - they’re forgiving themselves.”

We DID know, and here’s proof. These are all articles from March & April of 2020

• Mar 2: Discussion on how Covid IFR was likely much lower than predicted: https://cato.org/blog/misleading-arithmetic-covid-19-death-rates…

• Mar 3: Article on why masks are impractical https://cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-prevention-face-mask-not-helpful-wash-hands/…

• Mar 3: Berkeley doctor indicates masks are not helpful in preventing Covid https://komonews.com/news/consumer/cdc-says-surgical-masks-wont-protect-you-from-the-coronavirus…

• Mar 9: Article on how Covid is only really dangerous to the elderly https://abcnews.go.com/Health/early-mortality-rates-covid-19-misleading-experts/story?id=69477312…

• Mar 9: Doctor talking about unnecessary panic over Covid https://bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m800/rr-1…

• Mar 12: Review found severe mental health problems from prolonged quarantine https://psyarxiv.com/dz5v2/

• Mar 12: Chief medical officer saying people shouldn't wear masks https://independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-face-masks-increase-risk-infection-doctor-jenny-harries-a9396811.html…

• Mar 15: Medical org. says stopping elective surgeries is unnecessary & dangerous https://aha.org/lettercomment/2020-03-15-aha-letter-surgeon-general-re-elective-surgeries-and-covid-19…

• Mar 17: Covid response is focused on the wrong things https://statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/…

• Mar 19: Article about Covid overaction & its issues https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/eci.13222…

• Mar 25: Data about the health impacts of crushing the economy https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/489566-shutdown-is-killing-the-economy-and-is-also-no-good-for-our-health…

• Mar 26: Early evidence of hospitals inaccurately listing Covid as cause of death https://nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_8f833ac2-6fb7-11ea-8f9f-e34730a5ec7c.html…

• Mar 26: Early data shows we're overreacting to Covid https://nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w…

• Mar 28: Predictions about the harms of lockdowns: Drugs, Suicide, and Crime https://aier.org/article/drugs-suicide-and-crime-empirical-estimates-of-the-human-toll-of-the-shut-down/…

• Mar 28: Guardian outlines rise in domestic abuse throughout the world https://theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/28/lockdowns-world-rise-domestic-violence…

• Mar 30: Study showing children are not the primary spreader of Covid https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044826v1…

• Apr 1: Article saying masks offer little to no advantage outside of hospital settings: https://nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372…

• Apr 3: An overview on the dangers of Lockdowns https://reuters.com/investigates/special-report/health-coronavirus-usa-cost/…

• Apr 4: Warning of the harm on delaying non-Covid medical procedures. https://nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-surges-non-covid-medical-emergencies-take-back-seat-putting-n1175871…

• Apr 6: U.N. warns about domestic violence surge: https://npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/06/827908402/global-lockdowns-resulting-in-horrifying-surge-in-domestic-violence-u-n-warns…

• Apr 6: Piece on domestic abuse during lockdown https://nytimes.com/2020/04/06/world/coronavirus-domestic-violence.html?referringSource=articleShare…

• Apr 7: Piece on the mental health cost of the lockdown on kids: https://nytimes.com/2020/04/07/opinion/coronavirus-child-abuse.html…

• Apr 8: Research showing the seasonality of Coronaviruses https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/222/1/9/5815743…

• Apr 13: More confirmation about domestic abuse rising due to lockdowns: https://theintercept.com/2020/04/13/coronavirus-lockdown-domestic-violence/…

• Apr 15: Barely any transmission from outdoor activities: https://nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-transmission-chinese-study-shows-covid-more-likely-spread-indoors/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=homepage&utm_campaign=right-rail&utm_content=corner&utm_term=second…

• Apr 15: Different approaches by countries have little impact on Covid deaths https://lesoir.be/294653/article/2020-04-15/les-mesures-strictes-de-confinement-ont-un-impact-tres-faible-sur-la-propagation…

• Apr 15: Molecular Biologist suggests the cure is worse than the disease https://stream.org/our-heroic-efforts-to-stop-the-coronavirus-could-be-great-pain-for-little-gain/…

• Apr 16: Research showing school lockdowns aren't helpful & cause great harm https://thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30105-X/fulltext…

• Apr 16: UN overview about the poverty/death that will come from lockdowns https://reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-children-un-idUSKBN21Y2X7…

• Apr 17th: Info on how damaging canceled procedures are https://nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMms2009984…

• Apr 22: Potential for 60,000 cancer deaths due to lack of screening/treatment https://itv.com/news/2020-04-22/60-000-cancer-patients-could-die-because-of-lack-of-treatment-or-diagnosis-oncologist-on-coronavirus-dilemma/…

• Apr 23: The harm lockdowns are having on people with heart conditions. https://statnews.com/2020/04/23/coronavirus-phobia-keeping-heart-patients-away-from-er/…

• Apr 24: Data on the mental health toll of lockdowns https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069716v2?rss=1%27…

• Apr 26: The rise of domestic abuse during lockdowns https://bbc.com/news/uk-52433520?at_custom3=%40BBCNews&at_medium=custom7&at_custom2=twitter&at_campaign=64&at_custom4=01CEE4AA-8813-11EA-B742-159F4744363C&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D…

• Apr 24: Study showing school closings are the least cost effective pandemic policy https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.20.20054726v1…

• Apr 2: Indications from Europe that lockdowns are ineffective https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1…

• Apr 26: Data that the infection rate from kids is extremely low http://ncirs.org.au/sites/default/files/2020-04/NCIRS%20NSW%20Schools%20COVID_Summary_FINAL%20public_26%20Apr%202020.pdf…

• Apr 28: Increasing child abuse is a side effect of Covid lockdowns https://npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/28/847251985/child-sexual-abuse-reports-are-on-the-rise-amid-lockdown-orders…

• Apr 29: Cancer deaths could increase by 20% due to lockdown https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/28/1588083228000/UK-cancer-deaths-could-soar-by-a-fifth-this-year--says-UCL-study/…

RB concludes: “So, there you go. Those were all before May 2020, and we left out many more. We absolutely knew Covid restrictions were pointless & were going to cause massive societal harm. I will not forget the damage they did when we already knew better. We must never let it happen again.”