The population-level data suggests there are OTHER things at play which have a BIGGER influence on the pandemic. Today, we explore the data suggesting vaccination rates DO NOT influence the course.
I'm glad to see you mention seasonality. We've seen all along that there is no (good) relationship between masks and lockdowns and coronavirus outcomes. While the media select specific time frames to show the results they want, they can't explain the extreme peaks and valleys over time. Lockdown requirements and masking habits tend to hold steady over time, yet coronavirus outcomes climb and fall dramatically at predictable times of year depending on climate and environmental conditions.
Coronavirus rates are driven by seasonality, mostly by weather. The worst places are those with long stretches of gray skies at high latitudes with temperature lows in the 30s (just above freezing)—places like northern Europe and our mid-Atlantic coast in the winter and early spring.
So, what happens in the summer? In the U.S., air conditioning happens. Last summer (2020), we got the headlines complaining about failures of masking and obedience in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, etc. We could predict the same headlines this year at exactly the same time, only this time the headlines would complain of anti-vaxxers in addition to anti-maskers and anti-lockdowners. The press vilify southern states because the states lean Republican, but politics have nothing to do with it. Our states are large, especially many of the southern states. There is no "Texas" coronavirus result or "Florida" result or "California" or "New York" result. Results are as local as the weather.
Florida is our hottest state. (It is also our lowest and flattest state.) Within Florida, southern Florida is especially hot: tropical, with gray skies in the summer. People go inside into dry, stale air. Fulton Country, Georgia, containing Atlanta, is considerably farther north than Miami, and it is inland, with sunnier summer skies.
Hospitalizations in the South spiked around mid-August. Infections would have peaked a couple of weeks earlier. Miami's average daily temperate range on August 1st is 78-89. Atlanta's daily range is 71-88. Miami skies are only 36% clear, mostly clear, or partly cloudy. (The rest of the time is mostly cloudy or overcast). Atlanta, by contrast, is 59% clear, mostly clear, or partly cloudy. Although both Miami and Atlanta have nearly universal air-conditioning (98% each), people in Miami have more reasons to stay inside in July and August, and less sunshine to boost immune systems when they do go out. Even modest differences in temperature will have a significant impact on the sharpness of the curve, given the compounding effects of spreading.
Large parts of Africa, the Middle East, and Asia have tropical climates similar to that of southern Florida, but they do not have similar rates of air-conditioning or similar coronavirus outcomes.
Other factors come into play: Miami residents have an average age of 40, while Atlantans average just 33. And so on. But we will find no correlations with masking, lockdowns, and now vaccine rates and coronavirus outcomes. We can predict the coronavirus peaks and valleys with changes in the weather.
This suggests that a winter wave is coming. The fact that since delta took over, cases have been and continue at levels above 1 year ago across the country itself suggests that this winter wave should be larger than last year. Further, deaths should also be higher (last year at this time 7 day deaths were ~700. This year it's >1500). This week "experts" said the opposite.
Don’t believe any of this data. If you look at any reputable list of the 20 states with the current highest hospitalization rates you will see that nearly all of them are in the 20 states with the current lowest vaccination rates. And >95% of those dying of Covid in the past month are the unvaccinated. Never trust articles that don’t tell you where they get their data!
Very interesting analysis, it must have been a crap-ton of work(!) I'm curious where you found the county-level data. Is it also on an HHS site somewhere? This is the first time I've ever seen someone dig into county-level data; I'd love to take a look at some locales myself!
I'm not sure why you claim a vaccine can help an individual when the data clearly shows that cases and deaths are not affected. I do not see how both of these can be true. The stats are made up of individuals. Is there something I'm missing here?
I'm glad to see you mention seasonality. We've seen all along that there is no (good) relationship between masks and lockdowns and coronavirus outcomes. While the media select specific time frames to show the results they want, they can't explain the extreme peaks and valleys over time. Lockdown requirements and masking habits tend to hold steady over time, yet coronavirus outcomes climb and fall dramatically at predictable times of year depending on climate and environmental conditions.
Coronavirus rates are driven by seasonality, mostly by weather. The worst places are those with long stretches of gray skies at high latitudes with temperature lows in the 30s (just above freezing)—places like northern Europe and our mid-Atlantic coast in the winter and early spring.
So, what happens in the summer? In the U.S., air conditioning happens. Last summer (2020), we got the headlines complaining about failures of masking and obedience in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, etc. We could predict the same headlines this year at exactly the same time, only this time the headlines would complain of anti-vaxxers in addition to anti-maskers and anti-lockdowners. The press vilify southern states because the states lean Republican, but politics have nothing to do with it. Our states are large, especially many of the southern states. There is no "Texas" coronavirus result or "Florida" result or "California" or "New York" result. Results are as local as the weather.
Florida is our hottest state. (It is also our lowest and flattest state.) Within Florida, southern Florida is especially hot: tropical, with gray skies in the summer. People go inside into dry, stale air. Fulton Country, Georgia, containing Atlanta, is considerably farther north than Miami, and it is inland, with sunnier summer skies.
Hospitalizations in the South spiked around mid-August. Infections would have peaked a couple of weeks earlier. Miami's average daily temperate range on August 1st is 78-89. Atlanta's daily range is 71-88. Miami skies are only 36% clear, mostly clear, or partly cloudy. (The rest of the time is mostly cloudy or overcast). Atlanta, by contrast, is 59% clear, mostly clear, or partly cloudy. Although both Miami and Atlanta have nearly universal air-conditioning (98% each), people in Miami have more reasons to stay inside in July and August, and less sunshine to boost immune systems when they do go out. Even modest differences in temperature will have a significant impact on the sharpness of the curve, given the compounding effects of spreading.
Large parts of Africa, the Middle East, and Asia have tropical climates similar to that of southern Florida, but they do not have similar rates of air-conditioning or similar coronavirus outcomes.
Other factors come into play: Miami residents have an average age of 40, while Atlantans average just 33. And so on. But we will find no correlations with masking, lockdowns, and now vaccine rates and coronavirus outcomes. We can predict the coronavirus peaks and valleys with changes in the weather.
This suggests that a winter wave is coming. The fact that since delta took over, cases have been and continue at levels above 1 year ago across the country itself suggests that this winter wave should be larger than last year. Further, deaths should also be higher (last year at this time 7 day deaths were ~700. This year it's >1500). This week "experts" said the opposite.
Thank you very much for including WA State in this analysis. It is much appreciated.
In fact, all my posts are about seasonality—and the media's commitment to missing the obvious.
https://scareballoon.substack.com/p/plague-journal-may-2020-missing-the
I recently posted a piece on seasonality and Florida (after I posted my comments below):
https://scareballoon.substack.com/p/plague-journal-september-2021-blaming
Don’t believe any of this data. If you look at any reputable list of the 20 states with the current highest hospitalization rates you will see that nearly all of them are in the 20 states with the current lowest vaccination rates. And >95% of those dying of Covid in the past month are the unvaccinated. Never trust articles that don’t tell you where they get their data!
Very interesting analysis, it must have been a crap-ton of work(!) I'm curious where you found the county-level data. Is it also on an HHS site somewhere? This is the first time I've ever seen someone dig into county-level data; I'd love to take a look at some locales myself!
I'm not sure why you claim a vaccine can help an individual when the data clearly shows that cases and deaths are not affected. I do not see how both of these can be true. The stats are made up of individuals. Is there something I'm missing here?